Guest Post: Five Key Midterm Races For Democrats

Brad Van Arnum is my guest poster today and has some interesting analysis of key races this November

With less than six months until the midterm elections, it is imperative for Democrats to strategize and allocate their resources effectively. Winning the House, Senate, and as many governorships as possible is the highest priority for the party come November 3rd.

For this post, I thought it might be helpful to highlight several key races where our party’s time, money, and energy would be best spent. The races that I mention below are not only critical for taking back power, but they are ones that I feel aren’t receiving enough attention. These are races where individual Democrats can make a big difference, whether through donations or volunteering.

I’ll feature two Senate races, two House races, and a governor’s race.

Alaska:

This fall, there are two Senate seats that Democrats are likely to flip: North Carolina and Maine. That would bring the party to 49 seats in early 2027, assuming that Democrats defend all of their own seats (which I expect them to). That’s where Alaska comes in.

Even though Alaska is generally a Republican state, it could very well be seat #50 for Democrats this fall, which would deny the GOP full control of the Senate. The Democratic candidate who is all but certain to be our nominee, Mary Peltola, represented Alaska in the House from 2022 until 2025, and her entry into this Senate race back in January was perhaps the most important moment in our path to retaking the Senate.

Alaska, a state that is too often forgotten, is a great example of a place where party resources could make a real difference. I suspect that many folks might donate to the Democratic Senate candidates in North Carolina or Maine (or even to our candidates playing defense in Georgia or Michigan), but those races are already trending in our direction. In contrast, Alaska is truly a tossup at the moment, and as talented as Peltola is, she still has the difficult task of beating an incumbent Senator. This one race could determine Senate control, and it needs to be treated as such.

Nebraska:

If Alaska represents Senate seat #50 for Democrats, then Nebraska, surprisingly, could be seat #51, which would give Democrats full control of the Senate.

There are two other states, Ohio and Iowa, that are worthy of attention, but I picked Nebraska because I increasingly think that it is a more winnable race for us than Ohio or Iowa (also, as it turns out, Sherrod Brown in Ohio has already raised more money than he could perhaps ever need).

Dan Osborn, an independent who had also run in 2024 and came shockingly close to beating a Republican Senator, will be running again this fall. Nebraska’s Democratic Party is once again supporting Osborn, who will have a good shot at beating Republican Pete Ricketts (recent polling even shows Osborn leading Ricketts).

I suspect that Osborn will struggle somewhat with fundraising as the fall approaches, given that he is not running as a Democrat, but he deserves all the resources he can get. An Osborn victory would mean a loss for one of the most conservative Republicans in the Senate, and it would demonstrate the possibilities for other candidates running as independents against the GOP.

Ohio’s 7th House District:

One of my favorite things to do as an election analyst is to find seats that could potentially flip from Republicans to Democrats, but that few people are aware of. Ohio’s 7th House district, based in the southern suburbs of Cleveland, fits the bill perfectly. Earlier this month, Democrats nominated Brian Poindexter, who I think is an outstanding candidate with a good shot at beating Republican incumbent Max Miller. This is not the type of seat that Republicans even expect to be competitive, but channeling resources here could produce an upset that will help Democrats as they try to win as many House seats as possible this fall to counteract Republican gerrymandering.

Pennsylvania’s 10th House District:

One of the most reviled Republicans in the House of Representatives is Scott Perry, and for good reason. He has been a key member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, and Perry has been investigated for his role in January 6th. Thankfully, he is probably going to be shown the door this fall by Janelle Stelson, a Democrat who came close to winning this House district in central Pennsylvania two years ago.

Stelson is a rising Democrat, and someone who I think could even someday be a Senator. She was a local news anchor before running for office, and she comes from a part of Pennsylvania that has historically been quite Republican, but that is becoming bluer with each passing year. A victory for Stelson this fall would not only get rid of one of the House’s most noxious members, but it would help give our party a deeper bench in a key swing state.

Wisconsin:

Finally, to round out this list, I wanted to highlight a key governor’s race, along with a couple of legislative races. Wisconsin, as always seems to be the case, will be an especially crucial state this fall, as Democrats have a chance to gain a trifecta (control of all three branches of state government). If Democrats can hold the governorship and flip both legislative chambers, they would be in full control of Wisconsin for the first time in 16 years.

The Democratic primary for governor has been a bit chaotic, though I think as a party, we would put ourselves in a strong position by nominating Mandela Barnes, who served as the state’s lieutenant governor from 2019 to 2023. Barnes also ran for Senate in 2022, and came shockingly close to beating Republican Ron Johnson in what was a rough midterm environment for Democrats.

At the legislative level, Democrats in Wisconsin have a real shot at flipping both chambers, but winning the state senate is of special importance. One senate district in particular, the 5th, stands out as a good target for Democrats. The Democratic candidate, Robyn Vining, is looking to flip a GOP seat based in Milwaukee and Waukesha County. In one other senate district, the 17th, Democrat Jenna Jacobson is challenging a Republican who has held this seat for over a decade. If Democrats win both the 5th and 17th district this fall, that alone would flip the Wisconsin Senate from Republican to Democratic control. Keep in mind, legislative races tend to receive relatively few donations, meaning that every bit can really help out the Democratic candidates in these races.

On a final note, for those of you who prefer helping with races that are closer to where you live, you might want to check out my list of 30 competitive House seats, which I update regularly. I’ve tried to list House races all across the country, and chances are that one of these might be in your area.

If you’re still having trouble finding a race to get involved with, please feel free to reach out to me here on Substack! One of my goals over the coming month is to help folks find competitive Democratic campaigns that they would like to be a part of. I keep track of races all across the country, so if you need help finding one that would suit you, I’m happy to assist.

As always, a sincere thank you to Mark for featuring me, and above all, for everything that he does to help us fight Trump.

—Brad Van Arnum